After the 5th May showdown it seems there is a temporary lull in Bangladesh politics, but the storm is not over yet. Perhaps it has changed its location. Some political observers suspect that a new storm is brewing in London now instead of Dhaka.
Last Tuesday (21May 2013) a meeting was convened in the East end by Tareq Rahman, the senior vice-president of BNP. The BNP leaders and workers from all over Europe assembled in the London meeting to hear the speech of their leader.

The meeting was first a fiasco. All the supporters of BNP assembled in the Crown Plaza of East London. Immediately there were serious clashes between two groups of supporters in presence of their leader. Police had to intervene and ordered the gathering to disperse. Afterwards the meeting was held in a nearby hotel named Palm Tree. One faction of the BNP supporters attended the meeting while the other faction did not participate.

After remaining silent and inactive for almost six years Tarique Rahman gave an indication that his coming back to politics is imminent and his speech was full of criticism of the Awami League government. He demanded caretaker government for conducting the next general election and accused the government of mass murder in Shapla Chattar saying that the present government is a fascist one and they are suppressing the freedom of press and all criticism against them.

When Tarique Rahman left the country on parole six years ago he declared he will not be in active politics and came to London for treatment. During this long period he was not publicly seen participating in politics actively. Though there was rumour that he was conducting BNP politics and advising his mother remaining behind the scene.

His mother appointed him as the senior vice president of the party. So it was obvious that he was not going to leave politics but would come back at an opportune moment. There were numerous rumours about his coming back to Bangladesh for the last two years. But he could not return to his country because there were many cases against him for corruption and other charges in the courts and there was a fear that if he returned he might go to prison.

BNP's one of the main accusations against the present government is that Tarique and his many associates were facing false cases lodged by the Awami League government. In reality these cases were lodged by the previous caretaker government and they arrested Tarique and his brother Koko and afterwards allowed them to go abroad for treatment on parole.

BNP's expectation was that the present Awami League government would withdraw all these cases and allow Tarique Rahman and his associates to come back to the country as freemen. Awami League government did not fulfil this expectation and it is an open secret that this issue is one of the greatest obstacle to dialogue between the government and opposition.
It has been clear for sometime that Khaleda Zia, the BNP leader is grooming her son to inherit her position as the next leader of BNP. In BNP circle many leaders and workers think that Tarique Rahman will be the next prime minister of the country if BNP wins the next election. They are hopeful if Tarique Rahman can come back to the country the spirit of the party workers will revive and BNP may win the election.

With that hope Begum Zia tried her best to pressurize Awami League government to accept their demand for a caretaker government or to form an interim government during election whose head cannot be Sheikh Hasina. A BNP leader who is very close to me told me in confidence that Begum Khaleda Zia hopes if a caretaker or interim government takes power without Sheikh Hasina then Tarique's return to the country will not be difficult.

The caretaker government hopefully will not send him to prison and allow him to resume his political activity without any restriction. Once Tarique comes back to Bangladesh and take charge of the election campaign the party's moral will boost up and combating Awami League will be easy. That is why Begum Zia after her Singapore visit suddenly closed ranks with Jamaat even extended support to Hefajat to remove the present government from power.

Before her Singapore visit it was rumoured that she was seriously thinking to distance her party from Jamaat and to pave the way for a meaningful dialogue with the government. But during her Singapore visit Tarique contacted his mother from Saudi Arab and advised her to join the movement of Jamaat and give tacit support to their violent agitation to foil the trial of the war criminals of 71.
Tarique's hope was that the combined agitation and violence of Jamaat and BNP will force Awami League to accept their demand. Perhaps he even thought that after pursuing Hefajat to stand against the government it might be possible to topple the government. When Tarique Rahman was visiting Saudi Arabia recently he first joined a gathering of his party supporters and made virulent attack against the Awami government.

This indicates that the self-exiled leader of BNP is now preparing himself to come back to open politics. His recent London gathering and speech is only a follow up.
There is a gossip on BNP circle in London that Hefajat's grand rally at Shapla Chattar, BNP's 48 hours ultimatum to Awami League to accept their demand and Jamaat's continuous violence in the country were all combined efforts to force the government to bow to their demands or to topple them.

After the big failure of that attempt now Tarique Rahman has no option but to come out himself to the political arena directly to revive the morale of party activists. Otherwise his fear is that the moderate and elderly BNP leaders who were so long cornered or ousted from the party by him and those who are not in favour in alliance with Jamaat may now take over the party and influence Begum Zia to abandon Jamaat and Hefajat.

Actually the rise of Tareq Rahman as the second most powerful leader in BNP alliance with Jamaat was cemented and the moderate leaders lost their influence in the party. After 5th May's showdown the old alliance of BNP and Jamaat almost failed to achieve their goal and there is a lull in the political field at the present moment.
Both BNP and Jamaat seem to be so much shaken that it will be difficult for them to continue their violence in future. Government has now overcome their nervousness and consolidated their position to combat the alliance of the opposition. On one hand they are offering the opposition to come to negotiation table and on the other hand they are showing tough stance about accepting the demands of the opposition for forming caretaker government.

Now there is no scope for Tarique Rahman to run a battle against the government from behind the scene remaining in a foreign land. So, he has come out from the green room preparing for coming back to the open stage. This is the speculation in the BNP circle in London also. This time the venue of battle transferred from Dhaka to London temporarily.
It was reported in some local Bengali media that he is preparing a new battle plan. The present lull may not last long. If government cannot bring BNP to the discussion table for a fruitful dialogue, then a new stage of battle is being prepared in London and will reach Bangladesh under the captainship of Tarique Rahman.
He may remain in London but the battle will start under his direct leadership. If government remains self-contented with the present political lull then they will be unable to face the unseen storm which is brewing in a faraway land but its course is towards Bangladesh.